Economy

The macro series worth watching, each with what it measures and which direction is the good one.

CPI, year over year

2.90%

-0.20%vs prior

Headline consumer price inflation

Monthly · FRED· lower is better

Unemployment rate

4.20%

+0.10%vs prior

U-3, seasonally adjusted

Monthly · BLS· lower is better

Fed funds target

4.25%

-0.25%vs prior

Upper bound of the target range

Per FOMC · Federal Reserve· lower is better

Real GDP growth

2.40%

-0.40%vs prior

Annualised quarter over quarter

Quarterly · BEA· higher is better

10-year Treasury

4.18%

-0.06%vs prior

Constant maturity yield

Daily · Treasury· lower is better

30-year mortgage

6.42%

-0.11%vs prior

Average commitment rate

Weekly · Freddie Mac· lower is better

Personal savings rate

4.60%

+0.20%vs prior

Share of disposable income saved

Monthly · BEA· higher is better

Consumer sentiment

71.8

-2.30vs prior

Index, 1966 = 100

Monthly · U. Michigan· higher is better

What this means for valuation

Interest rates are the single macro input that touches every valuation directly. The return you require in the analyzer is your own number, but it should not sit far below what a risk-free Treasury pays — if a government bond yields 4.18%, demanding 8% from an individual equity is not much of a premium for the risk taken.

Inflation matters twice: once in the discount rate, and again in whether a business can raise prices. A company that cannot pass through cost increases sees margins compress in exactly the environment where its multiple is also falling.

None of this argues for timing the market. It argues for checking that the return you require is high enough to be worth the risk relative to what safe assets are paying today.

Data sources

Every series here is public and independently verifiable.

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): CPI, savings rate, GDP
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment, payrolls
Federal Reserve: Fed funds target range
US Treasury: Constant-maturity yields
Freddie Mac: Primary mortgage market survey
University of Michigan: Consumer sentiment index

Figures on this page are illustrative for the demo. Wiring the FRED API replaces them without changing this layout.